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WHY is it so often those with the biggest cars and smartest houses who complain about how iniquitous capitalism is? Smug claims about the death of capitalism in the wake of the global financial crisis have become commonplace in Africa, as elsewhere, and there seems to be real hope that a new world order will emerge that allows the continent half a chance of competing in it. Unfortunately for the Mercedes-Benz socialists among us, any new order is likely to be more about shifting the emphasis of global trade and investment flows, rather than any radical change in economic model. If anything, capitalism is likely to emerge stronger from its bout of recessionary flu.

Nevertheless, change precipitated by the crisis does provide an opportunity for African countries to re-examine the political and economic models they have inherited — and struggled with for decades. I have attended many forums held to discuss the impact of the crisis on Africa, and the opportunities for change it offers. I have yet to hear any tangible outcomes.

This is surprising, given how much money the continent’s politicians, academics, civil society organisations etc spend on trips around the world in the search for political and economic models that could help Africa Inc to be a success. The current global situation would therefore seem to be an opportunity for all those expensive trips to yield some results in terms of new thinking about making the continent a better place.

There are enough common threads for continental debate among our leaders on new post- crisis models for Africa. Vigorous continental, or even regional, discussions on the new challenges facing the continent do not seem to be happening. There are no emergency meetings of leaders to discuss the impact of the global crisis on Africa. There is certainly no sense of Africa as a driver of change. Rather, we are seeing the more usual Africa-as-hapless-passenger situation.

The most likely scenario is that countries will ride out the storm and hope the world will get back to business as usual, sooner rather than later. The reality is that African countries’ ability to adapt in the face of crisis is compromised by their failure to build their economies during the good times. Mozambique, one of Africa’s success stories, still relies on foreign aid for 40% of its budget. The same is true of many other countries. Some have not had the vision to make the most of their success. Zambia grappled with the issue of mining royalties throughout the copper price boom — indecision that cost the country dearly in revenue terms.

The myth about how Africa has been relatively unaffected by the global meltdown was highlighted in a report that landed on my desk last week, detailing the impact of the crisis on southern Africa’s mining sector, which contributes 22% (92bn) of regional output and provides 13% of the jobs. Produced by Southern Africa Resource Watch, it contains some sobering statistics.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, two-thirds of jobs in the mining sector have been lost in the year to March. The sector is expected to shrink 28% this year. Zambia’s mining sector is expected to decline 32% in output terms and 38% in employment terms this year; Angola’s mines had already shed 10000 employees by March and the sector is expected to decrease 28%. SA has shed 40000 jobs. Similar statistics exist for other mining-dependent nations in the region.

And mining is not the only affected sector. Africa’s biggest failure of the past decade is the underdevelopment of agriculture. A continent that cannot even feed itself — despite its competitive advantage in terms of natural resources — is not one that can pontificate about reshaping the world.

There is no silver bullet. Even the model of new alliances across the global south requires some hard bargaining by African countries, using resources as the basis for strengthening partnerships. Even as the recession advances, this is not happening. African countries do not need new economic models as much as they need to make the current ones work better for them by preparing now for the expected upturn.

THERE was some angry talk last weekend in the Wellington Hotel in Warri, the commercial capital of Delta State in Nigeria. To pass the time while waiting for a meeting with the state governor, who presides over the largest chunk of Nigeria’s oil economy, I wandered into a public meeting of Niger Deltans in the hotel’s convention centre, where a heated discussion was taking place.

As the entire gathering turned to look at me in surprise, I decided not to linger — my decision informed by the alarming headlines on the newspapers being sold on the hotel steps: “Army pounds Delta camps”, “Foreigners rescued by military”, “Over 60 feared dead in Niger Delta fighting”.

Later, my colleague, who hails from the Delta, Nigeria’s troubled oil-producing region, explained that it was an annual gathering to mark the life and times of Isaac Adaka Boro, a pioneer of the Niger Delta struggle for self-determination, who died 40 years ago.

Adaka Boro’s cause is still being fought. The Delta states, accounting for 90% of Nigeria’s revenue, remain poor and undeveloped. Government efforts at dialogue with Delta militants to solve the problem have borne little fruit. Last week’s military onslaught signals a different approach.

One sticking point in resolving the Delta issues has been a crisis of leadership at central and state levels. Another is massive and official theft of development resources.

The Delta people’s fight started out as a simple one: to get a decent share of the resources from their area. But as the problems have dragged on, the simple scenario of government versus militants has become increasingly complex and, importantly, monetised. Oil bunkering — theft of refined oil through pipeline sabotage — has become big business. Payment for protection of assets, companies and people has become even bigger business. In the process, fiefdoms have been created; militant leaders have become the new moguls.

Complicating the search for a solution is the mistrust of politicians. Previous state governors in the Delta took corruption to new heights and many Nigerians believe these displaced former leaders are frustrating efforts to solve the political problems.

The tide of public opinion seems to be in favour of the current blitz on militant camps by a combined security forces operation.

Nigeria cannot afford to leave this rising criminal tide unchecked. The people of the Delta are no better off for the riches being accumulated by the militant leaders in their midst. The illegal windfalls are not going to the development the rebel leaders say they are fighting for.

But it is also not enough for the government to stamp out the groups that threaten their main revenue base. The military operation may buy the government some time but these gains will be lost if it does not move swiftly to implement the many development plans currently gathering dust.

There are already some signs that oil money is starting to make a difference under a new crop of governors wanting to break with the past. Last week, I visited Asaba, political capital of Delta State. Roads were being built, street lights had been erected, and wide tree-lined streets conveyed an air of orderliness. Large swathes of the delta states are far from the trouble spots and are relatively easy to develop. Lack of development, rather than security, is the biggest problem in the Niger Delta

I am told that countries are lining up to explore business potential despite the risk factor. SA does not appear to be among them yet, despite the many models for financing, skills development, training, infrastructure and other areas of specialisation the country offers.

A recent gathering of governors from the oil states for an economic summit, the first of its kind in the region, indicates a shift in the development agenda in the Delta.

But the politicians need to reassure investors that they are committed to long-term and sustainable development, which will mark a break from the more usual short-term thinking that has little regard for the greater good of Nigerians.